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Offline theJrnyconts

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Point System Ranking
« on: September 24, 2017, 10:52:07 AM »
A couple of years ago I wondered how a point system would work for college football. My goal was to eliminate bias and overreactions while trying to encourage teams to schedule top tier talent. I decided I am going to try it this year and here is what I have so far. There are obvious flaws, but I have tried to minimize them.

1. You get points according to the opponents' win quantity. By this you get points for playing the game and if you win, you get that same number.
      - Example- Week five and you play a team that is 5-0. you get five points for playing and 5 for winning,
         thus accruing 10 points.
2. Nobody knows what a team is like the first two weeks of the season. To me, that is a 50/50 time. Since there are 12 weeks in the regular season, you get six for playing and six for winning with one exception, D2 schools.
3. D2 Schools:
      - If you open the season with one, you get the 12 points, unless you're Baylor or UNLV.
      - If you open the season with a top notch opponent and your second week is D2, you still get the 12
         points, unless you're Baylor or UNLV.
      - If you play one the third week of the season, they count like every other game. Points awarded
         according to win count.
      - If you play a D2 school after week 3, it counts as a bye week and you get awarded no points for playing
         them.
4. Big game scheduling gives you a bonus point total of the previous year's win total of your opponent.
      - Example: SDSU Scheduled ASU and Stanford, thus they get a bonus for Stanford. Had ASU been a little
         better, they would have gotten a bonus for that one as well. However given their ranking I think I
         decided afterwards there needs to be a standard and they still got a bonus.
5. Things to remember
      - With points, you don't get the drastic swings, this is a small issue, however I believe it will all work out in
         the end because if you keep losing, you keep being passed by teams that win.
      - This seems to favor name schools. Smaller schools take beatings for pay checks, thus killing the win
         total. This is a serious flaw and it may not matter this year, but it will eventually.
      - After four weeks, I think it has worked out really well for not overreacting to teams beating up losers.
      - The other flaw is trying to avoid having teams, like Sun Belt schools, load up on Alabama, Michigan, and
        USC to start the season. That automatically would give them 52 points and classified as the #1 team in
        the country with a record of 0-3. That would be 8 points ahead of the potentially real number one team.
      - All tie breakers are done alphabetically.
      - I tried to revise the rankings to properly fit this description, but I might have missed a team or two.
        THAT WILL CAUSE SOME HEAD SCRATCHING. (Stupid caps lock)
6. Due to cancelled games from the hurricanes, I decided to give teams the 50/50 score of 6 points.
    Something needs to happen so that teams don't get punished for not playing when its out of their control.
7. Lastly, I am just curious if this is something that could work. It'll never happen in real life, but I figure you
    guys could enjoy it and help refine the process and just maybe we could see something that eliminates
    bias, mostly(I have a bias that says winning is more important than losing. A bias is a bias), and try and tell
    who is actually more deserving of a title shot based on the field and not because you have a bigger name
    than others.

Rank Team     Points  Record

1   Alabama   44   4-0
2   Michigan   42   4-0
3   Clemson   38   4-0
4   Georgia   38   4-0
5   Oklahoma   37   4-0
6   SDSU   37   4-0
7   Auburn   36   3-1
8   WSU           36   4-0
9   Nuts           35   3-1
10   Stanford   35   2-2
11   TCU           35   4-0
12   Tennessee   34   3-1
13   Troy           34   4-0
14   UCLA   33   2-2
15   Florida   32   2-1
16   ND           32   3-1
17   PSU           32   4-0
18   USC           32   4-0
19   Appy St.   31   2-2
20   Miss St.   31   3-1
21   Arizona   30   2-2
22   BSU           30   2-1
23   LSU           30   3-1
24   UCF           30   2-0
25   USF           30   4-0
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2017, 10:58:46 AM »
For example, UCLA. I missed them and revised the rankings. I'm not going to repost this, but next week, they will be out with the proper point total.
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Offline geneh_33

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #2 on: September 27, 2017, 07:22:41 AM »
I had a points system developed a few years ago. I had to refine it so much because it just didn't work.

This looks pretty good so far, Jrny.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2017, 12:03:03 AM by geneh_33 »
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #3 on: October 01, 2017, 12:00:24 PM »
I had a points system developed a few years ago. I had to refine it so much because it just didn't work.

This looks pretty good so far, Jrny.

That is what got me thinking what if it is so simple it would irritate people? Hahaha, I do like it for the most part but there are things that don't sit well with me. I'll explain those after the new rankings.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #4 on: October 01, 2017, 12:00:45 PM »
1   Alabama   48   5-0
2   Clemson   46   5-0
3   Georgia   44   5-0
4   WSU   44   5-0
5   Auburn   42   4-1
6   Michigan   42   4-0
7   SDSU   41   5-0
8   Stanford   39   3-2
9   Florida   38   3-1
10   Nuts   37   4-1
11   Oklahoma   37   4-0
12   Troy   37   4-1
13   ND   36   4-1
14   FSU   36   1-2
15   PSU   36   5-0
16   UCF   36   3-0
17   USC   36   4-1
18   Okie St   35   4-1
19   TCU   35   4-0
20   Miss St.   34   3-2
21   Kentucky   33   4-1
22   LSU   33   3-2
23   Oregon   33   4-1
24   Miami   32   3-0
25   MSU   32   2-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #5 on: October 01, 2017, 12:17:01 PM »
Observations:

1. There is going to be a lot of movement. Bye weeks cause a lot of shuffling, but ultimately it will work out as teams get their bye week as well.
2. No matter how many times I disagree with teams in this experiment and go back to reevaluate them, I'm looking at you Mississippi State, the math adds up.
3. Scheduling big games still has a huge influence on the position in the poll. SDSU is the main recipient.
4. Some teams are ranked very high because they won. That was the main point of this system. Reward teams for winning and to avoid over reactions of beating team A. Auburn and Florida are the main culprits, but they have two losses, combined, to teams that, even in the real ones, are classified as better than them.
5. Washington is still 3 places away from the worst team in the rankings. Only UTSA is lower than Washington as an undefeated team. They are 58 of 61 teams that I pay attention to. With a total 24 points, it seems like this formula really punishes weak scheduling, just like it really praises strong scheduling. However they have a very back loaded schedule. This will be an interesting test subject as they are 24 points behind Bama. Good luck huskies.

Complaints:

1. Stanford is in the top ten because they have played very good opponents so far. I don't agree with that at all, but it might work itself out when they start playing worse teams.
2. FSU is ranked when they have defeated a very good Wake team. Their hurricane and big game points save them. They could be higher if they played the game that they would have won. However the fact is they didn't play and they have a losing record.
3. Oklahoma is behind the team they beat.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2017, 10:37:49 AM »
After looking over the rankings after this week, I came to the conclusion that something needs to happen with FSU. They are 1-3 and in no way the 17th best team in the country. Therefore a new rule that is implemented is once a team hits 3 losses, you no longer qualify for the rankings. Yes they have played a very good schedule, but they haven't been able to win. No reason at all to think you can compete for a national title. Which rankings are all about.

1   Alabama   56   6-0
2   Clemson   54   6-0
3   WSU   52   5-0
4   Georgia   50   6-0
5   Stanford   47   4-2
6   Auburn   46   5-1
7   Michigan   45   4-1
8   SDSU   45   6-0
9   Nuts   43   5-1
10   Florida   41   3-2
11   TCU   41   5-0
12   MSU   40   3-1
13   PSU   40   6-0
14   UCF   40   4-0
15   LSU   39   4-2
16   Oklahoma   39   4-1
17   ND   38   5-1
18   Oregon   38   4-2
19   USC   38   5-1
20   Troy   37   4-1
21   Va Tech   36   5-1
22   Wake   36   4-2
23   Wisky   36   5-0
24   Houston   35   4-1
25   Kentucky   35   5-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2017, 10:39:57 AM »
Something else that will rear its ugly head is ugly losses. There is no way for this system to account for ugly losses. I guess it could be losing to a sub .500 team you lose those points? hmm1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2017, 09:03:18 AM »
1   Alabama   60   7-0
2   Clemson   57   6-1
3   Stanford   55   5-2
4   WSU   55   6-1
5   Georgia   52   7-0
6   Michigan   51   5-1
7   Auburn   50   5-2
8   LSU   49   5-2
9   Nuts   49   6-1
10   SDSU   48   6-1
11   TCU   47   6-0
12   MSU   46   5-1
13   USC   46   6-1
14   Oklahoma   45   5-1
15   BSU   44   4-2
16   UCF   42   5-0
17   WVU   42   4-2
18   Wisky   42   6-0
19   Memphis   40   5-1
20   Miami   40   5-0
21   PSU   40   6-0
22   Troy   39   4-2
23   ND   38   5-1
24   Appy St.   37   4-2
25   Toledo   37   5-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2017, 09:17:52 AM »
If that wasn't prophetic, nothing is. Ugly losses. Auburn choked away a 20 point lead, Houston lost to 1-5 Tulsa badly, Washington got manhandled by 2-3 ASU ( being shut out until 5 minutes left in the fourth is manhandled), WSU looked worse than the worst high school team in the country, and Troy lost to 1 win South Alabama.

I noticed BSU got a huge boost from beating up SDSU. They got 12 points for the win and launched up from 38. However SDSU isn't being punished like they will in the real polls. That is something I have been trying to avoid. This is the first major over reaction this formulas has administered.

There is a lot of movement once I get rid of the 3 loss teams. For example Toledo and Appy St. wouldn't be there if Florida and other teams didn't choke and get their third loss. However, no one believes if you can't win 10+ games, you should play for a title. With that, this little system will dwindle to less than 25. You never get more than 25 teams that win 10+ games. Also, I don't think anyone really cares about the bottom 10, maybe 15 of the top 25, so that is why I am not worrying about it. It really is only the top 10 that matters as they have a real shot at a title.

Of the teams I am paying attention to, it has dropped from 64 to 47. 20 more teams have 2 losses so there is ample time for this to really become barren. However I should probably keep tabs on 30 or so teams so that I am covered.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2017, 09:29:27 AM »
1   Alabama   66   8-0
2   WSU   63   7-1
3   Clemson   57   6-1
4   Michigan   57   5-2
5   LSU   55   6-2
6   Stanford   55   5-2
7   Auburn   54   6-2
8   BSU   52   5-2
9   Georgia   52   7-0
10   MSU   52   6-1
11   UCF   52   6-0
12   SDSU   51   6-2
13   USC   51   6-2
14   Oklahoma   51   6-1
15   ND   50   6-1
16   PSU   50   7-0
17   Nuts   49   6-1
18   TCU   49   7-0
19   Memphis   48   6-1
20   Miami   48   6-0
21   Wisky   48   7-0
22   Miss St.   46   5-2
23   Toledo   45   6-1
24   Troy   45   5-2
25   Arizona   44   5-2
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2017, 09:37:03 AM »
8 weeks into the season and some very obvious flaws are rearing their ugly heads.

There are other details that need to be addressed. Maybe points for just playing is not a good attribute as that keeps teams ahead.
While preventing overreactions has mostly occurred with this formula, they are starting to become more and more prevalent. BSu in the top ten?
That big game match up is really benefiting some teams, namely a terrible Michigan team.
Speaking of that offensively inept team, three teams ahead of them had byes this week. That is why I think the playing points need to be eliminated. no team should ever move up for just playing. That is wrong.
What also supports that, is the fact Duh Nuts dropped almost ten places for being on a bye. I expect teams to drop when on a bye because others are getting points, but that much? No way.
However if you look at PSU. I think they are being properly handled. They haven't played anyone and should not be getting all sorts of praise for beating half teams, or nobodies. Same goes for Washington. However at the same token, I also think Washington is better than 12 of the teams in this top 25.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2017, 09:58:48 AM »
Out of curiosity, I also went through and only gave points for those that won. It looks better.

1   Alabama   60   7-0   63   8-0
2   WSU   59   6-1
3   Clemson   57   6-1
4   Stanford   55   5-2
5   Auburn   54   5-2
6   Georgia   52   6-0
7   LSU   52   5-2
8   Michigan   51   5-1
9   MSU   49   5-1
10   Nuts   49   6-1
11   Bsu   48   4-2
12   SDSU   48   6-1
13   TCU   48   6-0
14   UCF   47   5-0
15   USC   46   6-1
16   Oklahoma   45   5-1
17   PSU   45   6-0
18   Wisky   45   6-0
19   Memphis   44   5-1
20   Miami   44   5-0
21   ND   44   5-1
22   Troy   42   4-2
23   WVU   42   4-2
24   Toledo   41   5-1
25   Appy St.   38   4-2
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #13 on: October 28, 2017, 10:58:52 PM »
Teams with an X means they are still playing, but because of the point decision to get points for just playing, that is a serious flaw for this experiment. Notice even if WSU loses to Arizona, they move to #1 in the country. I can't have that. Thus, I will be adjusting the rankings to account only for winning.

1   WSU   63   7-1   x
2   Alabama   66   8-0   
3   Clemson   65   7-1   
4   Michigan   63   6-2   
5   Nuts   63   7-1   
6   ND   62   7-1   
7   BSU   60   6-2   
8   Oklahoma   59   7-1   
9   USC   59   7-2   
10   Georgia   58   8-0   
11   SDSU   51   6-2   x
12   Stanford   57   6-2   
13   Miss St.   56   6-2   
14   MSU   56   6-2   
15   PSU   56   7-1   
16   LSU   55   6-2   
17   TCU   55   7-1   
18   Auburn   54   6-2   
19   Memphis   54   7-1   
20   UCF   52   7-0   
21   Wisky   52   8-0   
22   Arizona   44   5-2   x
23   Okie St   51   7-1   
24   Miami   50   7-0   
25   S Carolina   49   6-2   
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2017, 01:41:17 PM »
Here is the adjusted rankings for just winning and not getting points for playing. Toledo is the only team that has this week's winnings included.

1   Alabama   38   8-0
2   WSU   35   7-2
3   Nuts   34   7-1
4   Oklahoma   34   7-1
5   BSU   32   6-2
6   Stanford   30   6-2
7   Auburn   29   6-2
8   Army   29   6-2
9   Memphis   29   7-1
10   Miami   28   7-0
11   Georgia   27   8-0
12   Troy   27   6-2
13   SDSU   26   7-2
14   Toledo   26   8-1
15   Wisky   26   8-0
16   LSU   25   6-2
17   Miss St.   25   6-2
18   MSU   25   6-2
19   UCF   25   7-0
20   USC   25   7-2
21   ND   24   7-1
22   Okie St   24   7-1
23   PSU   24   7-1
24   TCU   24   7-1
25   Washington   24   7-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2017, 01:42:18 PM »
Clemson was hurt badly by this change. Washington benefited greatly.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2017, 10:56:02 PM »
This week knocked us down to less than 30 teams with two or less losses. As losses pile up, I will be doing some manipulating. For Example, the Bobcats in the MAC have 15 points. Ouch weak schedule indeed. If they keep winning and remain at less than 3 losses, they will always be the last 2 loss team. I am holding three loss teams merely as place holders. Much beyond 15, there really isn't much point in keeping track however I do want to follow tradition of 25. As it stands right now, I am watching the last 30 teams to NOT lose more than three times. USC/Arizona will drop us to 29 teams. What this means is whoever is in the top 25 will automatically stay in my focus along with PSU, Arizona, Va Tech, Arky St. and the Bobcats of the MAC. I would hope we can survive the rest of the season with ten teams at two losses or less. Ultimately those are the ones I care about.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2017, 08:09:53 AM »
I like this result a lot more than the previous standards set forth.

1   Alabama   44   9-0
2   Oklahoma   41   8-1
3   WSU   41   7-2
4   Auburn   39   7-2
5   Miami   35   8-0
6   Nuts   34   7-2
7   Army   33   7-2
8   Georgia   33   9-0
9   BSU   33   7-2
10   MSU   32   7-2
11   Memphis   31   7-1
12   UCF   31   8-0
13   USC   31   7-2
14   Troy   30   7-2
15   ND   29   8-1
16   Washington   29   8-1
17   Wisky   29   9-0
18   TCU   28   8-1
19   Clemson   27   8-1
20   FIU   27   6-2
21   Miss St.   27   7-2
22   SDSU   27   8-2
23   Toledo   26   8-1
24   Michigan   25   7-2
25   USF   25   8-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2017, 10:17:07 AM »
I think this adjustment is much more legitimate than the previous method. Overall, a lot better than two weeks ago. The only major issue I have is UGA not being higher. Below are my observations

WSU, Nuts, and Army shouldn't be that high.
Wisky should be a little bit higher.
Toledo should be significantly higher.
TCU can't seem to recover from the BYE week.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #19 on: November 12, 2017, 03:06:32 PM »
1   Alabama   51   10-0
2   Oklahoma   49   9-1
3   Auburn   48   7-2
4   WSU   46   8-2
5   Miami   42   9-0
6   Nuts   41   8-2
7   BSU   39   8-2
8   USC   36   8-2
9   Wisky   35   10-0
10   Army   34   8-2
11   UCF   34   9-0
12   Georgia   33   9-1
13   Memphis   31   8-1
14   Troy   31   8-2
15   Clemson   30   9-1
16   Okie St   30   8-2
17   Michigan   29   8-2
18   ND   29   8-2
19   Washington   29   8-2
20   PSU   28   8-2
21   TCU   28   8-2
22   Miss St.   27   7-2
23   SDSU   27   8-2
24   Toledo   26   8-2
25   USF   25   8-1
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #20 on: November 19, 2017, 12:50:57 AM »
1   Auburn   52   8-2
2   Alabama   51   10-0
3   Oklahoma   50   10-1
4   Miami   48   10-0
5   WSU   46   8-2
6   BSU   43   9-2
7   Nuts   43   9-2
8   Wisky   43   11-0
9   USC   41   9-2
10   Georgia   40   10-1
11   UCF   39   10-0
12   Memphis   37   9-1
13   ND   35   9-2
14   Washington   34   9-2
15   TCU   33   9-2
16   PSU   32   9-2
17   Troy   31   8-2
18   Clemson   30   10-1
19   SDSU   29   9-2
20   Toledo   28   9-2
21   USF   27   9-1
22   MSU   36   8-3
23   Army   34   8-3
24   Miss St.   31   8-3
25   Okie St   30   8-3
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #21 on: November 19, 2017, 12:55:46 AM »
Well things have certainly ironed themselves out. There were some seriously interesting rankings with this experiment, but with one week left in the regular season, I has all been smoothed out nicely. There are still a few things that need to be cleaned up, such as Auburn and WSU losing in their respective games. BSu has two games left against Fresno St. There are a few winner takes all match ups too. Rivalry week is officially here if your team is worth a spit.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #22 on: November 25, 2017, 09:51:53 PM »
After careful consideration the adjustments through the season seemed to have worked fairly well. Namely only getting points for winning. That was a massive adjustment that worked out very well. I have also decided that you do get a bonus for winning a conference championship. You'll get the number of wins you won previous to that night.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #23 on: November 25, 2017, 10:13:46 PM »
1   Auburn   63   10-2
2   Oklahoma   57   11-1
3   Alabama   51   11-1
4   Nuts   51   10-2
5   Miami   48   10-1
6   UCF   48   11-0
7   Wisky   48   12-0
8   Georgia   45   11-1
9   Washington   43   10-2
10   USC   41   10-2
11   Memphis   40   10-1
12   Clemson   38   11-1
13   PSU   36   10-2
14   TCU   34   10-2
15   Toledo   34   10-2
16   Troy   33   9-2
17   SDSU   32   10-2
18   USF   27   9-2
19   WSU   46   9-3
20   BSU   43   9-3
21   MSU   40   9-3
22   ND   35   9-3
23   Army   34   8-3
24   Okie St   31   9-3
25   Va Tech   31   9-3

Not too shabby.
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Offline theJrnyconts

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Re: Point System Ranking
« Reply #24 on: December 02, 2017, 11:13:39 PM »
Here are the final rankings.

1   Oklahoma   67   12-1
2   Nuts   63   11-2
3   UCF   58   12-0
4   Georgia   55   12-1
5   Alabama   51   11-1
6   USC   50   11-2
7   Clemson   49   12-1
8   Miami   48   10-2
9   Wisky   48   12-1
10   Washington   43   10-2
11   Toledo   41   11-2
12   Memphis   40   10-2
13   Troy   40   10-2
14   PSU   36   10-2
15   TCU   34   10-2
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